Even if the “The Big One” actually happens, San Francisco’s biggest economic risk in the next ten years is a market crash, according to Lloyd’s City Risk index based off University of Cambridge research.
The study looked at the GDP of cities around the globe and calculated how much of its economic output would be at risk by man-made threats (like a market crash or cyber attack) or a natural one (earthquakes or flooding).
Although its likely San Francisco will experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or higher in the next 30 years, Lloyd’s estimated that only 13 per cent of the city’s total GDP would be at risk. Similarly, a flood in San Francisco — blame being surrounded by water on three sides — would cause the same amount of GDP risk as an earthquake.
Thanks to Silicon Valley, that’s not the greatest threat (at least if we’re only talking about the economy).
Cyber attacks and a shock to oil prices could do more damage to the city’s economic output. A market crash is the most threatening, though, and would put 25 per cent of the city’s GDP at risk. Let’s hope August’s market dip was not a harbinger of times to come for Silicon Valley.