A Look At The Key Economic Events In The Week Ahead

The key U.S. economic reports for the coming week are the October Personal Income and Outlays report, and the second estimate of Q3 GDP report. Also Existing Home sales for October will be released on Monday. 

Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys. Because of the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims will be released on Wednesday. 

Click on the graphs to enlarge…

—– Monday, Nov 21st —–
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October). This is a composite index of other data.

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10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.80 million at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in October. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.86 million.

Note: the NAR is working on benchmarking existing home sales for previous years with other industry data (expectations are for large downward revisions). There is no firm date for the release of these revisions.

Expected: The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (commercial real estate price index) for September.

—– Tuesday, Nov 22nd —–

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8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2011 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2011 (preliminary estimate). This is the second estimate from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4% annualized in Q3, down from the advance estimate of 2.5%.

The graph shows quarterly GDP growth (annualized) with the advance estimate in blue.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. The consensus is for the index to be at -1, up from -6 in October (below zero is contraction). 

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2011

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of November 1-2, 2011. These minutes will be fairly negative with a discussion of the significant downside risks from Europe, and the negative revision to forecasts. 

—– Wednesday, Nov 23rd —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been especially weak since early August, although this doesn’t include cash buyers.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a slight increase to 390,000 from 388,000 last week. The 4-week average has recently declined below 400,000.

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8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.0% decrease in durable goods orders after decreasing 0.8% in September.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for October. The graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September (2005 dollars). 

PCE increased 0.6 in September, and real PCE increased 0.5%. The price index for PCE increased 0.2 per cent in September. 

The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income in October, and a 0.3% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

9:55 AM: Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (final for November). The consensus is for a slight increase to 64.6 from the preliminary reading of 64.2.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for November.

—– Thursday, Nov 24th —–
Thanksgiving Day: All Markets Closed.

—– Friday, Nov 25th —–
Markets open, will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

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