What if … everyone is growing at once?
Since the financial crisis, the globe has been dealing with a series of rolling calamities or regional weakness.
There’s the ongoing weak recovery in the U.S., which has been punctuated by threats to shut down the government or default.
There’s been the massive crisis in Europe, and the attendant double dip.
And there’s been the constant drumbeat of “hard landing” talk in China. That drumbeat has gotten even louder lately.
But at the moment there’s an interesting possibility for global growth, which isn’t being talked about much, namely the possibility that everyone could be improving all at once.
This week, the signs became clear that the Eurozone is exiting recession. Recovery won’t be pretty but at least things should stop getting worse for now.
In the U.S., there’s continued hope/optimism that things are actually returning to normal, and that the economy can reach escape velocity. This most recent jobs report aside, it appears the pace of job creation has quickened, and there’s a decent degree of optimism for the second half of the year.
And even in China, there’s talk of a quick exit from the downturn. Over the last two weeks there have been some strong data points.
Everything is fragile.
In the U.S. there’s the upcoming Fed change/taper/budget fight/debt ceiling fight.
Europe is Europe.
And China could just be seeing an upward blip.
But it seems that for the first time since the crisis there’s a chance that everyone could actually get humming simultaneously. And that’s a possibility seemingly being considered by nobody.