The unemployment rate for February fell from the previous month’s 9.0% to 8.9%, the lowest level since March 2009. The briefing.com consensus was for 9.1% and their own estimate was for 9.2%.
Here is the lead paragraph from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of labour Statistics:
“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 192,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.9 per cent, the U.S. Bureau of labour Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and business services, health care, and transportation and warehousing.”
The unemployment peak for the current cycle was 10.2% in October 2009. The chart here shows the pattern of unemployment, recessions and both the nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite since 1948.
Unemployment is usually a lagging indicator that moves inversely with equity prices (top chart). Note the increasing peaks in unemployment in 1971, 1975 and 1982. The inverse pattern becomes clearer when viewed against real (inflation-adjusted) S&P Composite, with its successively lower bear market bottoms. The mirror relationship seems to be repeating itself with the current and previous bear markets.
The second chart shows the unemployment rate for the civilian population unemployed 27 weeks and over. The January number is 4.1% — down from December’s adjusted 4.1%. This measure gives an alternate perspective on the relative severity of economic conditions. As we readily see, this metric is significantly higher than the peak in 1983, which came six months after the broader measure topped out at 10.8%.
The third chart is one of my favourites from CalculatedRisk. It shows the job losses from the peak employment month since World War II. Note the addition of the dotted-line alternative for the current cycle, which shows unemployment excluding the temporary census hiring.
The start date of 1948 was determined by the earliest monthly unemployment figures collected by the Bureau of labour Statistics. The best source for the historic data is the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Here is a link to a Google source for customisable charts on US unemployment data (not seasonally adjusted) since 1990. You can compare unemployment at the national, state, and county level.