Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Start getting excited! It’s Non-Farm Payrolls day tomorrow.Here’s Nomura:
Employment report: We are forecasting an increase in total nonfarm payrolls in September of 60k, with private payrolls increasing 80k and manufacturing payrolls rising by 5k. Assuming no revisions to past data, a data release in line with our forecast would lead to a 3-month moving average for job creation of just 48k in September, sharply slower compared to a high for 2011 of 215k in April, and further ruffling the feathers of Doves on the FOMC that would like to provide more stimulus for the labour market. The economic outlook remained “unusually uncertain” in September, still fuelled by fears of European contagion and stock market volatility. The Verizon strike of 45k workers, which negatively impacted August payrolls, will provide a boost to September payrolls of similar magnitude. Elsewhere, we believe the average workweek ticked back up to 34.3 hours and average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% following a decline of 0.1% in August. We also forecast that the unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%.