A 10-Second Preview Of Tomorrow's Huge GDP Report

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Photo: Library Of Congress

From Nomura:Q3 GDP – advanced estimate: We expect the BEA to report an annual growth rate of 2.6% in real GDP for Q3. We revised our forecast down by 0.2pp based on the details of the durable goods report. Despite the economy in August being impacted by a confluence of factors (debt ceiling debate, S&P downgrade, Europe), the US economy appears to have rebounded in the final month of the quarter. In particular, a solid increase in private consumption, including vehicle sales, is expected to contribute 1.4pp to real GDP growth on a q-o-q basis in Q3. Although fiscal tightening likely shaved a few tenths off of growth, a pickup in private non-residential investment was strong enough to offset the decline in public spending.

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