Are Oil Prices Are About To Wake Up To Peak-Production Realities?


Somehow the government is sticking with an outlook that sees crude prices not hitting triple digits until 2015.

It is an estimate that would get smirks on Wall Street and get you laughed out of the room at the peak oil conference in D.C.

Just look at the chart on right to see why.

The crude trend line from 2003 to 2008 headed for $120 and higher, and it was only interrupted by the global recession. Now we’re getting back on track and oil cracked $90 this week.

This chart comes from seminal peak oilist Chris Skrebowski’s presentation at the ASPO-USA conference.

Prices were on track were peak oil realities

High prices did not draw out new supply

On any trend line global demand is rising, thanks to emerging markets

Barring global depression, demand growth won't stop

Global energy import dependence is still rising -- we're hooked

Transportation is the biggest user of oil. Unfortunately it's the hardest thing to change, a few electric cars notwithstanding

Built infrastructure prevents a shift to new fuel types, especially in a developed country like the US

$100 oil costs the world over $8.5 billion dollars a day

High crude price coincides with recession

High oil prices seem to slow GDP growth

Policy options are few

Chris Skrebowski's outlook: Peak oil is the event that will shape the next century

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