The U.S. Government took some enormous steps and continues to take enormous steps to right the economy.
In his 2013 outlook, KKR’s Henry McVey points to the $7.66 trillion worth of stimulus as a reason to be bullish on real assets like real estate and commodities.
The United States is running an explicit reflationary policy of holding nominal interest rates below nominal GDP. Though this relationship was slightly more stretched back in the late 1970s, it is again near record levels. We are also dealing with far more liquidity injections by the U.S. government than in the past. In the U.S. alone, monetary and fiscal stimulus as a percentage of GDP has breached the 40% threshold, nearly 5 times what was put into the system after the great depression (Exhibit 52). Moreover, the latest round of quantitative easing is tied to unemployment, which we do not see changing quickly, given that new business formation is still running 35% below the historical average.
Here’s a breakdown of all that stimulus.