To the scoreboard:
Dow: 24,873.00 -1.76 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 2,726.18 +5.24 (+0.19%)
AUD/USD: 0.7817 +0.0054 (+0.70%)
ASX200 SPI futures (March contracts): 5,954 (+12)
1. It’s GDP day: Q4 GDP is the data highlight today, and David Scutt’s 10-second guide has everything you need to know. The forecast is for growth of 0.5% in the December quarter, leaving the annual rate at 2.5% after Q3 results missed slightly due to weaker consumption. Also this morning (8:35am AEDT) RBA Governor Lowe gives a speech on “the changing nature of investment”.
3. Markets to-and-fro: There was no major catalyst for stocks overnight and the S&P500 traded flat. Concerns about a global trade war appear to have eased, with ex-Goldman Sachs Vice President-turned White House economics advisor Gary Cohn taking a strong anti-tariff stance. Reports even suggested that if the Trump administration approves the tariffs, he may leave.
2. AUD finds a bid: The Aussie broke back above its 200-day moving average overnight and is sitting comfortably above US78 cents this morning amid broader US dollar weakness. The euro also performed strongly and is back above $US1.24. And amid ongoing dialogue between North and South Korea, the Korean won has been the best performer this month against the greenback.
4. Bitcoin climbed above its 50-day moving average yesterday to reach a high of almost $US11,600, but it couldn’t hold support and has fallen back to around $US10,600 this morning. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has one eye on cryptos if its recent job listings are anything to go by — the criteria for its equity research notes “knowledge of cryptocurrency is a plus“.
5. Gold had a solid session, climbing by more than 1% overnight amid weakness and the USD and copper is also higher. Oil prices jumped around with benchmark crude holding at around $US65 a barrel, while iron ore extended its losing streak — it’s now down by 4.2% in March — although futures markets closed the session higher.
6. Be wary of “buy the dip”: Buying stocks whenever prices correct has been a strategy that’s paid off handsomely over the course of the nine-year bull market. But JP Morgan is growing wary — the bank’s equity analysts noted that retail investors stayed on the sidelines amid last week’s stock falls, and if the trend continues it could create downside risks for stocks in the near-term.
Have a great day.