6 things Australian traders will be talking about this morning

Good morning.

To the scoreboard:

Dow: 22,773.67 -1.72 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 2,549.33 -2.74 (-0.11%)
AUD/USD: 0.7771 +0.0005 (+0.06%)
ASX200 SPI futures (December contracts): 5,691 (-6)

1. USD pushed higher again on Friday: And that was despite a fall in monthly jobs for the first time since 2010. But the market ignored the poor result due to the impact of hurricanes, and there were signs of positive wage growth. So the USD index briefly pushed above 94 before concerns around another North Korean missile test saw a sharp retreat to end the session. The Aussie dollar rose slightly at the open this morning but looks vulnerable.

2. And bond yields rose: The CME Fedwatch tool now has the probability of a December rate increase by the US Fed at 89.2%, and benchmark US 10-year treasury yields pushed above 2.4% for the first time since July, before they too fell back in the wake of the North Korean threat. Spanish 10-year bonds fell sharply by 13 basis points on Friday, but were still higher over the week amid tensions around the Catalan independence movement.

3. Share markets ease back: US stocks finally eased back from their recent run of record highs on Friday, but the S&P500 still finished up 1.2% for the week as strong earnings and the prospect of tax cuts provide a favourable backdrop. European stocks also retreated after hitting a four-month high on Thursday, while ASX traders have marked the local index down slightly this morning after a strong rally to end the week.

4. Data this week: There’s no headline releases on the domestic front, although NAB releases business confidence data on Tuesday and Westpac’s consumer confidence index for September is out on Wednesday — both are likely to get some attention. Today, China has Caixin services PMI data and then there’s a raft of central bank speakers throughout the week, with the all-important US inflation data on Friday. Full calendar is here.

5. Bitcoin’s back: The world’s biggest cryptocurrency is back above $US4,500 for the first time in a month, and a short time ago it was still climbing. The latest move higher comes amid increasing interest from regulators and investment banks. Off-shot Bitcoin Cash continues to fall, and a short time ago was trading at its lowest level since August.

6. Commodities wrap: Iron ore edged higher as Chinese traders return from holiday. Benchmark crude oil closed down 3% for the week amid mixed messages from major producers, although there was some jaw-boning from OPEC’s secretary general yesterday about further production cuts next year. Gold staged a brief rally on Friday but remains on a downward trend amid renewed strength in the US dollar.

Enjoy your day, I’m on Twitter @Mr_SamJacobs.

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