5 Thoughts On $150 Oil

U.S. Oil production

This weekend, Barron’s got a lot of attention for predicting another oil surge to $150.

We summarized some of their key points here, though basically it comes down to: strong demand growth coupled with mediocre supply growth.

In a note out today, Oppenheimer’s Fadel Gheit and Daniel Katzenberg offer 5 thoughts on $150 oil:

  • The last surge to $148 oil was caused by speculation. Another such a move would likely be caused by fears of supply disruption, not strong demand.
  • $150 oil would cause $5/gasoline and be a brutal shock to the US consumer.
  • $150 oil would almost certainly cause politicians to get serious about a new energy policy.
  • The biggest winners: Producers of primary sources of energy, and the companies servicing them. Losers would be consumers, as well as transportation, chemicals agriculture, and food.
  • The best stocks “The biggest gainers would be companies with high oil focus, especially in North America, where unit profits are the highest in the world at oil prices above $80/b, such as WLL, HES, MUR, MRO, OXY, CVX, BP and APA.”

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