It’s been a slow year for tech IPOs.
To date, there have only been 28 tech IPOs in 2015, totaling $9.4 billion in value — down from 62 deals in 2014 valued at $40.8 billion total, data from Dealogic show. Even excluding last year’s $25 billion Alibaba IPO, activity this year is down about 40%.
But analysts, bankers, and pundits predict that trend toward staying private is likely to reverse next year.
Venture capital database CB Insights created an algorithm called Mosaic to predict which tech companies are most likely to go public next year.
They looked at factors including:
- Companies’ financial health and who their investors are (big names like Sequoia rank higher than smaller names)
- Which industries within tech companies are in (big data, internet of things, and cybersecurity rank higher than the daily deals space, for example)
- Companies’ hiring trends (hiring VPs of sales is not a good sign, but hiring HR professionals, or a CFO is)
- Customer and partner signings
- Sentiment (measured by media and social media mentions)
Here are the 5 companies CB Insights predicted would be most likely to IPO in 2016, ranked by likelihood based on the company’s algorithm:
MuleSoft is a software company based in San Francisco, California.
Total funding: $258.5 million
Last round: $128 million (Series G)
Select investors: Hummer Winblad Venture Partners, Morgenthaler Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners
Okta is an identity and access management service company headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Total funding: $229.3 million
Last round: $75 million (Series F)
Select investors: Andreessen Horowitz, Floodgate, SV Angel, Greylock Partners, Khosla Ventures, Sequoia Capital
Zuora is an enterprise software firm based in Foster City, California.
Total funding: $242.5 million
Last round: $115 million (Series F)
Select investors: Benchmark Capital, Shasta Ventures, Redpoint Ventures, Tenaya Capital, Greylock Partners
Nutanix is a webscale IT and storage company based in San Jose, California.
Total funding: $317.6 million
Last round: $140 million (Series E)
Select investors: Blumberg Capital, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Khosla Ventures, Battery Ventures
Actifio is a copy data management firm based in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Total funding: $207.5 million
Last round: $100 million (Series E)
Select investors: Greylock Partners, North Bridge Venture Partners, Andreessen Horowitz, 83North