Photo: Flickr/AJ Guel
As always, we head back to the film room on Monday to recap yesterday’s games.We had a good day, going 4-1 on our 5 bets. But rather than gloat in our glory, we’re hungry for a repeat. We take you back to examine gambling trends that emerged in Week 10. Be sure to pounce on them before the betting public does.
It's never easy to win games by more than 10 points in the NFL. But it's even harder when underdog coaches can play 'the nobody believed in us' card as Vegas has them losing by two touchdowns. The Cowboys were the latest underdog to cover a double digit spread.
In Week 10 scores surpassed Vegas's over/under in 10-of-13 games, and the previous Sunday 9-of-12 games achieved the over. We think the crackdown on hitting might have something to do with this trend, but whatever the cause, jump on it before everyone else does and forces Vegas to up the line.
Sure the Rams are an inconsistent 4-5 overall, but against the spread they're an unflappable 7-2. Meanwhile, Detroit entered this Sunday 2-6 in the standings and 7-1 ATS. Though they lost against the closing line, if you put money on them early in the week they came through for you. On the other end of the spectrum, the Panthers and Cowboys are a league-worst 2-7 ATS.
Remember, as we've noted before, while wins-and-losses might be the best measure of past performance, the best predictor of future success is point differential. On that note, keep an eye on Detroit and San Diego who have positive point differentials despite losing records, and Seattle, Tampa, and Jacksonville, winning teams with a negative point differential.
What comes to mind when you think of Baltimore and Pittsburgh? If you answered defence, you should take a closer look at the numbers. Over the last four weeks the Ravens have allowed almost 24 points per game, while the Steelers vaunted D permits nearly 26 points per game. When money's on the line, reputation is meaningless.
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