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Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha has assembled some interesting facts about earnings season.Here are a few selected ones.
- Proportion of EPS beats lower than prior quarters but back to historical average with 60% of firms beating (62% of ex-Financials); 10% are meeting estimates.
- About 80% of Industrials, Tech, Materials, Healthcare beating/meeting; 60% of Energy, Financials, Cons Disc and Staples; Utilities and Telecom missing
- Margins beat again. Aggregate ex-Financial margins are coming in 52bps above consensus; 60% of firms beating on margins (63% ex-Financials).
- Guidance for 2012 has been neutral to negative vs. consensus with guidance coming in 2.4% below consensus on average.
- Consensus estimates: Q4 EPS up to $24.0, 2012E has stopped falling EPS for Q4 is up to $24.0 on a blended basis, combining actuals for reporters with consensus estimates for the rest; this is up from $23.2 when Alcoa reported, pushing 2011 full year EPS up to $97.8. Estimates for 2012 have risen to $105.3 after falling since August from a high of $113 down to $104 before Q4 reporting.