BLACK SWAN FUND: 'There's going to be chaos'

Screen Shot 2016 08 05 at 9.49.52 AMReal Vision screenshotJerry Haworth, CEO of 36 South

London-based hedge fund 36 South Capital Advisors makes buckets of money when markets go haywire.

Jerry Haworth, the firm’s CEO, is ready, and waiting expectantly.

He spoke to Raoul Pal from Real Vision TV in an interview aired Friday, and said that central banks have been trying to dampen volatility by pumping money in to the economy, but that in the end this will backfire.

“There’s going to be chaos,” he said.

Here’s the relevant bit from an interview published Friday on Real Vision TV (emphasis ours):

The credit bubble has got so big that the participants can’t service their interests, and the government is one of the biggest participants, so they dragged the interest rate down to zero, and then they got trapped there. Even a homeless person can service a $1 billion loan at zero, so one wonders how it is going to end.

It creates second order consequences where people say, ‘well, it’s free money,’ and that I think is eventually going to create the inflation. Now that you have the inflation, now you’ve got the dilemma: what do you do with interest rates? If interest rates follow suit, there’s going to be chaos. Equity markets, property markets, bond markets. Can you imagine the property market in London at [an interest rate of] 7%? Probably the price will drop 50% to 75%.”

Now, Haworth has reason to say this. His fund, 36 South, primarily invests in long-dated options, and is basically long volatility. That means that his fund benefits when volatility spikes and markets start moving wildly. He said that central banks right now are trying to reduce volatility, but that that would lead to a big spike in the future.

He said:

“I see volatility like a train moving out of the station. You get the first jolt, then nothing, and then slowly it starts to pick up. And then normally … it’s contagious. It builds up. But now like in August and January, you feel the jolt, then you see central bank action and it dies down again…Short term it’s having the desired effect, medium and long term, I’m not sure it’s not going to result in much more negative consequences and extreme volatility.”

One of 36 South’s funds gained more than 200% in the market downturn after the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse, and raked it in last August in the China markets chaos, Business Insider previously reported.

The firm managed about $913 million at year-end 2015, according to a regulatory filing.

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