Inquiring minds are reading the March 2011 LPS Mortgage Monitor.
There is a bit of good news in the report. Delinquent and Non-Current Rates are improving. However, the rates are still exceptionally high historically. Also, some of the foreclosure data is skewed by moratoriums and reworked loans.
On the other hand, option ARM foreclosures have increased dramatically over the last six months and 30% of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment for at least two years. 47% of those in foreclosure have not made a payment for at least 18 months.
Charts and Comments from the LPS Report
Delinquencies remain about twice the 1995-2005 average, foreclosure inventories are 7.8 times historical “norms”.
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February Month-End Data: Conclusions
- Delinquency rates resumed their decline after an increase in January and foreclosure inventories remain stable, slightly below historic highs.
- Delinquencies continue to improve as new problem loan rates decline and cure rates increase.
- Foreclosure start declines and foreclosure suspensions are reducing the upward pressure on inventories caused by foreclosure sale moratoria.
- An enormous backlog of foreclosures still exists with overhang at every level:
- There are three times the number of loans deteriorating greater than 90+ days delinquent as compared to foreclosure starts.
- There are also three times the number foreclosure starts vs. foreclosure sales.
- Foreclosure inventory levels are over 30 times monthly foreclosure sale volume.
There are 42 pages of charts and tables in the report. Inquiring minds will want to take a closer look.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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