While Goldman is calling for $105 oil next year and JPMorgan predicts $120 oil in 2012, the government says crude won’t hit triple digits until 2015. And won’t come close to 2008 highs ($147 briefly) until 2035.
The government also assumes U.S. electricity costs will remain basically flat for decades while shale gas production surges.
Third, it says U.S. emissions will remain below their 2005 peak through 2027, despite a 30 per cent increase in coal dependence.
Says Rubin: “The $125-per-barrel oil price that the EIA has spotted on the very distant 25-year horizon, I believe, will actually be staring the agency in the face within the next twelve months. I leave it to others to assess what that will imply for the credibility of the rest of the EIA’s outlook.”
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