3 Reasons Why Goldman Is Bullish On Caterpillar

Caterpillar

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From Goldman’s Jerry Ravich, a bullish argument on Caterpillar, which has been raised to a ‘BUY'(1) Accelerating incremental margins despite slowing sales growth. We expect CAT to deliver 25% incremental margins in 2012 (excluding M&A) driven by strong SG&A control, growth in high-margin mining and oil & gas businesses, and lower incentive compensation. (2) Improved visibility on rising mining and energy capex budgets. Our $69 bn mining capex survey points to 15%-20% growth in 2012, we expect Joy Global (JOYG, Buy) earnings to provide visibility on strong aftermarket sales, and we expect CAT to announce a meaningful capacity expansion for Bucyrus hydraulic excavators. (3) 2012 rail capex budgets to point to a doubling in North America locomotive capex, as reinforced by our proprietary survey covering companies that accounted for 50% of industry c

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