The official expectation for today’s jobs report is 180K, but there are some signs that suggest it could be huge.
Here are 3.
The employment sub-index of the ISM Services report turned in a monster reading. And this sub-index often correlated with NFP well.
In this chart, the red line is the ISM services sub-index, which as you can see has exploded lately. It makes sense that this would have some decent predictive value, since services are such a huge part of the US economy.
Meanwhile, US auto sales (which have a decent track record of being correlated with employment) had their best month since the crisis.
And finally, initial jobless claims have fallen to their lowest level since the crisis.
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