It Looks Like This Is The Year We Finally Recover All The Jobs We Lost In The Recession

In November, the number of employed Americans rose 1.7% from a year earlier, according to unadjusted nonfarm payroll data from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics.

This measure of the rate of job growth has been steady in a 1.6-1.9% range for the past two years, as Chart 1 shows.

If we assume November’s 1.7% year-over-year rate of growth held steady in December (actual numbers will be released Friday by the BLS), then 2.3 million jobs will have been created in 2013, marking the biggest annual rise in employment since 2005, when 2.5 million workers were added to nonfarm payrolls (Chart 2).

If we assume further that November’s 1.7% rate of job growth extends into 2014, then America will have recovered all of the jobs it lost since the recession by October, as Chart 3 shows.

Total nonfarm payrollsBusiness Insider/Matthew Boesler (data from St. Louis Fed)Chart 3. Green line represents extrapolation based on 1.7% rate of year-over-year payroll growth.

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