More and more we’re hearing about how 2012 is similar to 2007.
For example, yesterday Albert Edwards put out this chart of stalled earnings momentum, comparing the current scene to 2007.
And just now on CNBC, ECRI’s Lakshman Achutchan hinted at the comparison in defending his recession call.
And then of course, there’s the growing oil price doom drumbeat. Just like 2007, prices are shooting up.
But basically, that’s where the comparisons stop.
In 2006-2007, initial jobless claims were steadily drifting higher. Now they’re dropping like a rock.
In 2006-2007, housing starts were dropping like a rock. Now they’re rising.
Along the same lines, total employment growth was decelerating on an annual basis in 2006-2007, whereas now it’s accelerating.
In 2006-2007 car sales were declining precipitously. Now they’re surging.
So the comparison to 2007 is pretty thin. Sure there are some superficial similarities regarding oil prices, but when you look at the sharply different direction in car sales, home sales, and housing starts, it’s really not even that close.
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