Citi Geoffrey Dennis notes, 2012 is going to be a huge year for politics and elections.
The World Votes… We estimate that 59 countries, including many emerging markets, will have elections/political transitions in 2012. Six are G20 members – the US, China, France, Russia, Korea and Mexico. Given this political change and the recent mass waves of popular protests, shifting public opinion may be a key risk factor in 2012.
EMs Vote…. This process may be even more important in the emerging markets in 2012. Including the political transition in China and key local elections in India, three of the four BRICs and eight of the biggest nine countries in MSCI GEMs (the exception being Brazil) will see political change in 2012. Adding in Egypt, elections cover 71% of the GDP of MSCI GEMs, 73% of market cap and 78% of population.
Meanwhile, trust in government is collapsing.
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