11 Things That Are Going To Happen In 2011*


Every pundit worth his salt has some 2011 predictions (ours are forthcoming), but what do the markets see happening right now?

As we’ve done in the past, we’ve scoured InTrade.com, the popular prediction market, to get the odds on various events that may or may not happen in the coming year.

A note on how an InTrade market works: Each issue is posed as a YES/NO question. As betters think the outcome is more likely to be YES, the contract veers closer to 100. It gets closer to 0, as NO looks more likely. At the end of the defined period, the contract closes at one or the other.

There's a 15.1% chance the US goes into a recession in 2011

There's a 61% chance Sarah Palin announces a Presidential run

There's a 10% chance of a strike on Iran by the end of the year.

And there's a 3.8% chance of a strike by the end of June.

There's an 85% chance that the GM Volt will be delivered to dealers by the end of March

There's a 12% chance the Supreme Court will strike down the individual mandate

There's a 35% chance of an NFL lockout.

The odds of a strike on North Korea are 11%.

The odds of the debt ceiling being approved by the end of February are just 20%.

There's a 34% chance that 2011 will be the warmest year on record.

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