This weekend, Barron’s published the first instalment of its famous Barron’s Roundtable, featuring 10 “gurus” talking about the economy.
- Archie MacAllaster, MacAllaster Pittfield Mackay
- Fred Hickey, The High Tech Strategist newsletter
- Meryl Witmer, Eagle Capital Partners
- Mario Gabelli, Gamco
- Bill Gross, PIMCO
- Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs
- Oscar Schafer, OSS Capital Management
- Marc Faber
- Felix Zulauf, Zulauf Asset Management
- Scott Black, Delphi Management
We’ll summarize the discussion below, but if there’s one theme it’s: We’re fine at the moment, and we’re screwed long term.
As for this year:
- Witmer: The economy is coming back nicely, but stocks are pretty fully valued at this point.
- Black: Things are fine now, but we’re in trouble long term because we’re kicking the can down the road.
- Schafer: Yes there are long term issues, but it’s a stock picker’s market, and stocks will rise 5-10%
- Zulauf: The developed world, in contrast to the emerging world, is living in a fantasy.
- Gabelli: Everything will be fine this year. China slows a little. Europe keeps bailing out the PIIGS, and Obama moves to the centre and all his hunky dory.
- Gross: Yes, the economy will grow 4% this year, but it’s a sugar high, and without serious re-investment, the US is going nowhere.
As for the deep, structural issues that everyone is worried about, what are they?
- Cohen: We have a deep educational deficit. We need more investments in science.
- MacAllster: But the US still leads the world in tech innovation.
- Hickey: But US companies are all forced to hire overseas workers, for lack of talent in the US.
- Faber: Everyone’s living in a dream world. It’s all the Fed’s fault!
- Hickey: 50% of my assets have been in gold for 7 years. It’s ridiculously under-owned still.
- Zulauf: It still has a long way to go.
On overall market predictions:
- Hickey: If the Fed keeps printing, the stock market could go another 10% higher. Otherwise, , it will collapse.
- Gross: With GDP of 4%, stocks could move 5-10% higher.
- Cohen: S&P 1500!
- MacAllaster: Here comes another 1,000 point dow rally.
- Gabelli: 5-10% gains.
- Zulauf: 10% range one direction or another.
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