The 19 Countries Most Likely To Default: Ireland Surges Higher

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Photo: kthypryn on flickr

Ireland’s bank bailout and the failure of its austerity budget has been the big sovereign debt story since September.This country’s place on CMA Datavision’s cumulative probability of default rankings has spiked as from 14th place in July, to 5th place by the end of Q3.

But Ireland isn’t the only country in sovereign debt trouble, and it’s not the other PIIGS that dominate this list either.

CMA‘s list is ranked by CPD, or cumulative probability of default. This rating is separate from a company’s CDS, but is closely related, and based on the volatility and price of that product.

#19 Croatia

Cumulative Probability of Default: 16.6%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 254.7

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb+

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bb

Source: CMA Datavision

#18 Dominican Republic

Cumulative Probability of Default: 17.6%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 266.3

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bb

Source: CMA Datavision

#17 El Salvador

Cumulative Probability of Default: 17.5%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 267.7

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bbb+

Source: CMA Datavision

#16 Lithuania

Cumulative Probability of Default: 17.5%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 271.3

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bbb+

Source: CMA Datavision

#15 Bulgaria

Cumulative Probability of Default: 27.8%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 275.4

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision

#14 Lebanon

Cumulative Probability of Default: 18.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 287.8

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bb

Source: CMA Datavision

#13 Iceland

Cumulative Probability of Default: 21.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 303.3

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision

#12 Hungary

Cumulative Probability of Default: 20.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 320.6

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q1): bb

Source: CMA Datavision

#11 Latvia

Cumulative Probability of Default: 20.8%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 329.7

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision

#10 Romania

Cumulative Probability of Default: 22.1%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 350.9

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision

#9 Iraq

Cumulative Probability of Default: 26.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 427.1

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): b+

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): b+

Source: CMA Datavision

#8 Dubai

Cumulative Probability of Default: 26.5%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 437.4

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): b+

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): b+

Source: CMA Datavision

#7 Portugal

Cumulative Probability of Default: 30.2%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 408.8

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): b+

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision

#6 Ukraine

Cumulative Probability of Default: 32.3%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 546.8

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): b

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): b

Source: CMA Datavision

#5 Ireland

Cumulative Probability of Default: 33.0%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 458.3

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): b

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): bb

Source: CMA Datavision

#4 Pakistan

Cumulative Probability of Default: 34.6%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 606.4

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): b

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): b

Source: CMA Datavision

#3 Argentina

Cumulative Probability of Default: 40.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 749.3

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): b-

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): ccc+

Source: CMA Datavision

#2 Greece

Cumulative Probability of Default: 48.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 775.3

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): ccc

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): ccc

Source: CMA Datavision

#1 Venezuela

Cumulative Probability of Default: 54.2%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1109.4

CMA Implied Rating (Sept 30): ccc

CMA Implied Rating (Q2): ccc-

Source: CMA Datavision

So what does sovereign default look like?

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