Investors are waiting patiently for the June employment situation report released by the Bureau of labour Statistics, which comes at 8:30 AM EST.While most top economists continue to predict the U.S. non-farm payrolls report will come in near 100,000, yesterday’s ADP report has caused a flurry of revisions higher.
Everyone has an opinion on what will drive that figure, either up or down (even Business Insider weighs in, with a projection for 90,000 new jobs).
The range of estimates of the 24 economists surveyed by Business Insider is for a gain between 70,000 and 135,000. The Business Insider median projection is for a 97,500 increase in net payrolls.
We rounded up the top U.S. economists’ predictions.
'Stronger business demand for durable goods and sustained consumer demand for autos should have helped increase manufacturing jobs, while a pick-up in housing starts and permits should have helped create construction opportunities. That said, we're calling for private payrolls expanding by +85K and manufacturing by +8K.'
-- Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott
'We look for nonfarm payrolls to expand 75k and private payrolls to increase 85k in the June employment report. This would imply a 10k decline in public payrolls, consistent with the softer trend in public sector layoffs relative to last year. Underlying our forecast are jobless claims data, which have reversed their decline in Q1, and the likelihood that higher uncertainty will cause firms to postpone some investment and hiring plans until they are more certain about the state of final demand.'
-- Dean Maki, Barclays
'Nonfarm payrolls have exhibited a strong seasonal tendency for early year strength to give way to spring/summer time weakness over the past three years. In 2010, nonfarm payrolls, excluding the hiring of temporary Census workers, rose +141k in March, +176k in April and +106k in May for a three-month average of +140 ... This three-month period of relative strength soon gave way to weakness as over the next four months ... However, they rebounded thereafter, averaging +156k over the remainder of the year.'
-- Joseph LaVorgna, Deutsche Bank
'Given the Fed's renewed focus on the jobs backdrop, the June report should garner substantial fanfare nonetheless. We anticipate a soft reading of just 75K for headline payrolls. The construction space probably remains under pressure as building activity continues to bump along the bottom, while retail hiring should soften on the back of weakening retail sales over the last few months.'
-- Tom Porcelli, RBC
'Weekly initial claims seem stuck at an elevated level of 385k. At the same time, the employment components of the two ISM purchasing managers' indices are also painting a rather bleak picture. As suggested by the average of these two components, calculated at a 20% weighting for industry and an 80% weighting for services -- which in the past showed the strongest correlation with the three-month moving average of private employment -- the current trend is clearly to the downside.'
-- Christoph Balz, Commerzbank
'The weakness in hiring of late reflects a mix of seasonal issues, which should largely be played out after the June report, and an underlying slowing reflecting slower US and global growth, as well as growing uncertainties about the outlook. The goods producing sector is not expected to add any workers in June after shedding 15k jobs in May. The seasonal payback in construction will be less of a drag, although this improvement will be partially offset by a slower pace of manufacturing hiring.'
-- Julia Coronado, BNP Paribas
'That said, we look for stronger growth in goods producing payrolls in June (+5,000) than in May (-15,000). One of the main weak spots of the May report was a 28,000 decline in construction payrolls which we do not think will be repeated in June.'
-- Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan
'Yet, the release of ADP figures this morning surprised on the upside and showed that the employment market has strengthened over the course of the month. The improvement of the employment component of the ISM nonmanufacturing was also good news. Therefore, we now expect total NFP employment to rise by 85K in June with however some clear upside risk weighing on our forecast.'
-- Julien Thomas, Natixis
'We forecast a modest re-acceleration in payroll growth in June after the dramatic slowing in April and May. We project a rise in total payrolls of 85,000 and 100,000 in private payrolls. That moderate pace of growth likely left the unemployment rate steady at 8.2% in June. We also forecast a 0.1% m/m gain in average hourly earnings and an uptick in the workweek (to 34.5 hours).'
-- Maury Harris, UBS
'Key labour market readings are expected to be decidedly mixed in the BLS' June report. A tug of war between a more favourable calendar configuration and stepped-up layoffs implied by recent jobless claims figures points to a 90,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls -- the third consecutive sub-100,000 print. At 236,000, the projected increase over the April-June span would mark the weakest quarterly job creation since the 136,000 positions shed during the summer of 2010.'
-- Brian Jones, Societe Generale
'The labour market tends to lag the economy, and economic activity has decelerated since February after a solid beginning of the year. The lagged effect has been very pronounced in the April and May data and will probably be evident again in the June employment data. The behaviour of jobless claims is indicative of labour market conditions that have lost momentum and are sluggish.'
-- Ward McCarthy, Jefferies
'Construction payrolls contracted a net 47,000 from March through May after increasing by nearly the same amount in December and January. With housing starts firming and renovation spending persisting, we believe that construction jobs will be up marginally. Manufacturing jobs also increased notably in the winter but have started to slow over the prior two months; we expect another soft reading in June.'
-- Ethan Harris, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
'Job growth should be better in June, but that doesn't mean it will look good. We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 100K in June and private payrolls to be up 110K ... Three specific industries should play the biggest swing factors. Last month's outsized decline in construction (-28K) and weakness in leisure/hospitality (-9K) and professional and business services (-1K) all should bounce back.'
--Neil Soss, Credit Suisse
'Weather and seasonal adjustment issues were important factors in the first five months of the year. An unusually mild winter lifted figures for January and February, pulling seasonal gains from April and May (and leading to smaller seasonally adjusted job growth in the last two months). We should see a somewhat stronger figure in June, but the various labour market indicators suggest that the pace will be moderate at best. Note that seasonal adjustment is huge in June.'
-- Scott Brown, Raymond James
'All things considered, we maintain our forecast for the economy to add a disappointing 110K private sector jobs, with total employment growing at a slightly lower 100K pace on account of the 10K drop in public sector employment. Jobs growth should remain tepid across the board, with service sector employment remaining the key catalyst for the improvement in labour market performance, with growth in education, leisure and hospitality, professional services and retail trade activity.'
-- Eric Green and Millan Mulraine, TD Securities
'Incorporating our June forecast, the second quarter would average just 84,000 jobs per month, marking the lowest quarterly payroll gain since the fourth quarter of 2010. Given the better-than-anticipated June ISM employment indices and acknowledging the five-week internal between survey periods, we increased our June nonfarm payroll estimate to 106,000 from last week's initial 62,000 call.'
-- Sam Bullard and John Silvia, Wells Fargo
'The May report was downbeat not only in the skimpy rise in payrolls, but also in the shorter workweek and the stingy rise in hourly earnings. While employment may remain soft in June, we wouldn't be surprised by a rebound in the workweek and a pickup in earnings. This would mean a bounce back in wage and salary income growth.'
-- Peter D'Antonio, Citi
'We bumped up our payroll estimate by 20,000 following release of the surprisingly strong ADP report. Still, job gains have moderated quite a bit in recent months ... But, there also seems to have been some underlying deterioration in labour market conditions of late.'
-- David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley
'In June, the drag from construction (-28,000 in May) could have lessened noticeably, with the category perhaps showing no change in the period. Manufacturing, where payroll growth softened from about 40,000 per month in the first quarter to an average of 10,000 in April and May, could have risen by close to 10,000 again. We expect little change in retail as well, which could have inched up by 5,000.'
-- Michelle Girard, RBS
'Unemployment claims are only 20K off of the early February low so there are no worries about a double dip; initial claims would have to go above 430K to signal a new recession. Nevertheless, the sideways trend since February 11 could be evidence of a temporary slowdown in the economy just like in 2011. We are watching the situation, but so far the slower pace of private payroll jobs at 82K in May and 87K in April does not look to be serious in nature.'
-- Chris Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
'This week has featured five better-than-expected pieces of news relating to employment: 1) a relatively robust employment index in the ISM manufacturing survey, despite weaker activity overall in the sector, 2) a substantial month-over-month increase in online job advertising, 3) a much better than expected ADP employment report, 4) slightly lower new jobless claims...'
-- Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs
'The ADP June employment gain came in stronger then the consensus forecast we used in our payroll employment tracking models. While the ADP does a decent job of tracking payrolls over time, monthly divergences can be significant ... Other employment indicators for June pointed to slower manufacturing hiring, a rise in unemployment insurance claims from May and a rise in the percentage of households reporting that jobs were hard to get last month.'
-- Michael Carey, Credit Agricole CIB
'Despite the drag from layoffs, we look for rebounds in hiring by business services and manufacturing firms to push job growth above the paltry pace in April and May (73k average monthly growth), when payback for a weather-related spurt of hiring in the December-March period may have influenced results. While the rebound would be a welcome development, the forecast still involves a pace of job-market activity that is unlikely to lead to improvement in the unemployment rate.'
-- Michael Moran, Daiwa Securities