The 14 Countries More Likely To Default Than Spain

Spain Protest

Photo: AP

Today, Spain was downgraded by Moody’s over concerns the €20 billion the government has set aside for a banking sector bailout will not nearly be enough.But if you think the situation in Spain is bad, you need to look around a bit more.

CDS prices for Middle Eastern sovereigns, European trouble spots, and others remain high as a result of market concern they a primed to default.

The price to insure eurozone sovereigns like Portugal and Ireland has surged as a result of the Spain downgrade.

For this list, we’ve ranked countries by the market price to insure their debt. Their may be other methods, but this gives a good take on the current market view of the fiscal and political stability of these countries.

First, #15 Spain

5-Year CDS spread: 249.88

Recent turmoil: Spain was just downgraded by Moody's over concerns the country's government has not set aside enough money to bail out its financial sector.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#14 Romania

5-Year CDS spread: 278.46

Recent turmoil: Romania's recession continued through 2010, with GDP falling 1.3%.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#13 Croatia

5-Year CDS spread: 280.29

Recent turmoil: Croatia has been hit by anti-government protests and is still reeling from the financial crisis downturn.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#12 Bahrain

5-Year CDS spread: 284.39

Recent turmoil: Bahrain is experiencing protests similar to those facing other parts of the Middle East, and is dealing with an oppressed Shiite majority that is driving the movement.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#11 Hungary

5-Year CDS spread: 301.83

Recent turmoil: Hungary was downgraded in December, and is struggling to deal with its fiscal problems. It just announced new plans this week.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#10 Vietnam

5-Year CDS spread: 335.77

Recent turmoil: Vietnam has been forced to devalue its currency in a bid to deal with its debt problems.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#9 Lebanon

5-Year CDS spread: 355.00

Recent turmoil: Lebanon has recently seen protests and political upheaval.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#8 Egypt

5-Year CDS spread: 374.17

Recent turmoil: Egyptians have kicked out their president, and are now being stewarded by a military government.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#7 Dubai

5-Year CDS spread: 432.93

Recent turmoil: Dubai continues to suffer from an oversupply of real estate, which threatens the stability of the whole country.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#6 Ukraine

5-Year CDS spread: 440.00

Recent turmoil: Growth slowed in Q4 2010 for the Ukraine, but growth of 4-5% is expected in 2011.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#5 Portugal

5-Year CDS spread: 496.64

Recent turmoil: Portugal looks to be well short of €20 billion it needs to pay its bills in 2011.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#4 Ireland

5-Year CDS spread: 587.03

Recent turmoil: Ireland continues to struggle with its banking sector crisis, which has now burdened the government with non-performing loans and a EU-IMF bailout.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#3 Argentina

5-Year CDS spread: 590.81

Recent turmoil: Argentina is yet again struggling with high inflation, years after the country faced crisis.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#2 Greece

5-Year CDS spread: 1033.93

Recent turmoil: Greece recently faced another round of protests over the governments austerity measures.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

#1 Venezuela

5-Year CDS spread: 1080.06

Recent turmoil: Oil production is down in Venezuela, endangering the government's ability to pay its debts.

Source: CMA Datavision, Bloomberg

So what does sovereign default look like?

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