It’s been 1,350 days since the market fell 10%, and that’s just fine

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Investors have been waiting around for the stock market to fall for years.

It’s been 1,350 days since the last stock market correction.

But at least one analyst doesn’t think this is a big deal.

A correction — defined as a decline of 10% from the most recent highs — hasn’t been seen since May 2011, and while this seems like a long time (because it is!) it isn’t unprecedented and shouldn’t particularly worry investors right now.

In a note to clients on Monday, Jonathan Golub at RBC Capital Markets said that in the last 25 years, there have been 2 longer, uninterrupted stock market runs.

From 2003-07, the S&P 500 rose without a 10% decline for more than 1,600 days, and from 1990-1997, the S&P 500 rose for more than 2,500 without a 10% pullback.

Here’s why Golub doesn’t see a 10% correction on the horizon:

In our view, the market’s path forward will likely be uninterrupted for two key reasons:

  1. Bear Markets (-20%). Larger pullbacks are almost exclusively the result of recessions. Economic indicators suggest little risk of such a downturn.
  2. Corrections (-10%). While macro events are the most likely cause of a correction, their impact is more limited in a low volatility environment. As Exhibit 6 shows, volatility tends to drift lower as the cycle matures, lowering the risk of a correction.

Golub adds that while some investors see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates as a potential risk to the market because it will heighten volatility, Golub thinks these fears are overblown.

Here’s the chart Golub cites, overlaying volatility and GDP growth, which he thinks will keep the market chugging along.

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