History says this bull market is not over.
The following chart, which comes to us from Tom Lee at Fundstrat Global Advisors, shows that when you look at rolling 10-year stock market returns, the current bull market look like it’s just getting started.
After hitting what to Lee looks like a generational bottom in 2009 after the financial crisis, stocks have roughly tripled. But compared to the multi-decade rallies we’ve seen over the last 100 or so years of market action, the current bull market has quite a ways to go and could last until the end of the next decade.
Lee, who has a year-end target on the S&P 500 of 2,325 for 2016, was the most bullish forecaster among those tracked by Business Insider for 2015. His forecast for this year, however, looks on track to miss the mark by quite a bit.
But Lee’s general thesis is that while stocks have had a rough year in 2015 and face a number of challenges next year including rising interest rates and a strong dollar weighing on emerging economies, he is firmly in the camp that says we’re in a secular bull market.
Savita Subramanian at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Adam Parker at Morgan Stanley are also among those who believe the current bull market isn’t hitting a peak but more likely pausing before a continued grind higher.
In her year-ahead outlook for 2016, Subramanian said the S&P 500 could be headed to around 3,500 (from closer to 2,000 currently) by 2025, while Parker simply laid out a case for why right now is not the time to forecast an end to the current bull market.
And overall, no forecaster tracked by Business Insider is calling for a decline in the S&P 500 next year.
Then again, the same was true last year and stocks, ultimately, went nowhere.