10 things you need to know this morning in Australia

There’s always Le Tour. Photo by Jeff Pachoud/AFP/Getty Images)

Welcome to Monday, and three years of mayhem.

1. Let’s ease in with a chart.

This is via the ABC and it shows the stunning continuing rise of support for independents over time in Australian elections – and the associated decline in primary vote support for the major parties. This is a warning, and while local factors obviously played an issue, it would be naive of the to ignore how Australians are joining the growing global outpouring of anger and cynicism at the ballot box. There’s a detailed read here.

2. As for who’ll form government, we won’t know until tomorrow at the earliest, or possibly next week, especially if neither major party can get within one or two seats of a workable majority. Five seats remain incredibly close – Hindmarsh, Forde, Chisholm, Gilmore, and Dunkley. In Chisholm the Liberal candidate Julia Banks is leading by just 66 votes while up in Forde Coalition incumbent Bert van Manen is behind by 149 votes. Various calculators put around a dozen seats still in doubt, however. The independent MPs Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie, Adam Bandt, Cathy McGowan from Indi and Nick Xenophon’s Rebekha Sharkie from South Australia could play a vital role in Australian politics over the coming years. NXT may also pick up a second seat, Grey.

3. What went wrong? The Coalition was losing seats all over the place for a range of reasons. The Medicare scare campaign, which The Australian reports today was devised by Wayne Swan’s daughter and the ALP’s head of digital, Erinn Swan, was devastatingly effective. And the Coalition struggled to fight the union army on the ground; a Liberal source said campaign funds, thin anyway because of a long-term decline in corporate donations, couldn’t stretch in the final hours to fight back against Shorten’s union machine. And ultimately, voters did not buy Turnbull’s message of stability and economic management.

4. The news is not all good for the ALP. Bill Shorten suprised everyone but astonishingly there is now talk of a leadership challenge against Shorten, and Labor also registered its second-lowest primary vote in history.

5. Now for the market judgment. Warren Hogan, who was previously chief economist at ANZ, has set out some of the likely reaction among investors and traders as markets open up around the world today. He warns that political gridlock is now a risk to Australia’s economic outlook.

6. The Australian dollar popped lower in early trade following Saturday’s result. Look:

AUDUSD Hourly (Reuters Eikon)

ASX futures suggested a pretty solid day day, with the September SPI 200 contract up 32 points at the close, but there’s a chance that will undershoot. Greg McKenna looks at the trader talk for the morning here.

7. Highlight #1: Sam Dastyari inviting Pauline Hanson to Sydney to enjoy a halal snack pack, and her horrified reaction. Perfect.

8. Highlight #2: Laurie Oakes doing his bit for the punters after one of the betting services ran a book on what colour tie he would wear during the election broadcast. Oakes changed his tie repeatedly throughout the night, meaning the bookies had to pay out on all the bets. “I like to think of myself as the punters’ protector,” Oakes explained.

9. Iceland are out of Euro 2016. They got thumped by France, but still managed to get on the 5-2 scoreboard. The semi-finals now feature Portugal versus Wales, and France against the Germans, who rolled the Italians in a penalty shoot-out.

10. There’s always Le Tour. Peter Sagan of Slovakia won his first-ever stage to take the yellow jersey from Mark Cavendish.

Have a great day.

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