10 things you need to know this morning in Australia

Bremain’s new recruit gave it the advantage. Picture: HBO

Good morning.

1. Here comes the cold feet – polls are leaning towards Bremain. But the only Brexit poll that matters is the one that comes in Friday morning, and history suggests Britain will stay in the European Union. People in general don’t like change if it reeks even the tiniest bit of uncertainty, and of all the people, the Brits don’t like change the most. Including “Last Week Tonight” host John Oliver, who has finally weighed into the debate, and brought some numbers that do a fine job of helping him shred the argument for a Brexit:

2. The football didn’t help. More than 16% of respondents to a BMG survey said they would be more likely to vote “Out” if England beat Slovakia in their Euro 2016 match overnight. Just 11% said England progressing in Euro 2016 would make them more likely to vote Remain. The result? A 0-0 draw, which we guess favours the Remain camp.

3. So the upshot right now is that markets are breathing a huge sigh of relief. Tick them off – the pound, the FTSE, the German DAX and French CAC, all up overnight. US stocks slid into the close, but the ASX 200 is looking good to build on yesterday’s $30 billion bonanza. The September SPI futures contract is up 24 points to 5221, which implies the physical should open around 5280. Greg McKenna reckons resistance is around 5293.

And, of course, the Aussie dollar is soaring.

4. Q&A finally tackled economic modelling, and it showed why they should do it more often. Well at least, we think so at Business Insider. The PM got hit with an excellent question about the reliability of budget forecasts and spending trajectories when Treasury’s estimates have been consistently overshooting in recent years. The details are here.

5. Donald Trump is fading in the polls so badly, he did exactly what you’d expect Donald Trump to do – he fired his campaign manager. But things could be a lot worse for the Republican candidate. News is just coming in that a 19-year-old British man went to a Las Vegas gun range to learn how to shoot, then made a beeline for a Trump rally so he could kill the candidate. Here’s how frighteningly close he got to achieving that.

6. Barack Obama is officially into what some call the US presidency’s IDGAF stage. He’s already watched all the official US President’s early “Game of Thrones” releases, picked out a new house for his family, and is working on his short game. And after Air Force One landed at Joint Base Andrews, Obama and his family stayed on the plane for “way longer than usual” – to watch LeBron James pull off ridiculous NBA championship winning moves like this:

The White House confirmed Obama’s dedication:

7. If you want to be like LeBron, Tony Robbins says this is how you get the confidence that makes him such a dominating force in the sports world. But if you want to be a great investor, here’s what Blackrock VC Byron Wein learned from his hero, Edgar de Picciotto.

8. Or, if you’re in a rut, you could do what Jesse Itzler did – hire a Navy SEAL to live with you for a month. Here’s what Itzler says he gained from the gruelling experience of having to do whatever his SEAL told him to do. And if that sounds a bit soft, hire a Gurkha instead. BI’s David Choi says this is why he thinks they’re arguably the most savage soldiers in the world.

9. Billionaires building things. Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s “Stratolaunch” is 76 per cent complete. That means the aeroplane’s wingspan now stretches 76 per cent of the length of an American football field. It will be the biggest plane in the sky. That’s as long as it’s in the sky – Allen said the plane has “beyond-Earth ambitions”. Meanwhile, Elon Musk has undersea ambitions for Tesla:

He’s referring to James Bond’s Lotus from “The Spy Who Loved Me”, which he bought several years ago, and was obviously fielding queries after he’s posted a video of a Tesla driving through a tunnel filled with water in Kazakhstan.

10. There’s been a lot of talk about how crappy the writing has been in the new series of “Game of Thrones”. That’s the first series not based on the books written by real writer George RR Martin. If you’re on pace with the US releases, you might have noticed what people are whinging about, because there was an almost unmissable plot hole in this week’s big battle. Yes, spoilers.

BONUS ITEM: Bear didn’t give right of way. We find in favour of the cyclist:

Have a great day.

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