Good morning. And congratulations Mick Fanning, on still being alive.
1. The construction boom has peaked. Forecaster BIS Shrapnel says yes, in one sense. Dwelling starts reached an all-time high in 2014-15 nationwide and are now trending down. Forecasts are we’ll head well into significant “oversupply” territory within three years for the first time since 2000. Which just might be the start of something, but that’s about a certain as things get in real estate right now.
2. On stocks in Australia, after a flat day Friday and with Japan on a public holiday it could be a quiet week. Futures are suggesting almost no move with the SPI200 closing down just 1 point to 5,612. Stocks in London were down a little on miners and the Royal Mail so the former might weigh on the market here today. But there’s some movement afoot this morning after APRA just upped the risk weights for the big banks and Macquarie for mortgages.
3. This week in data is a bit of a slow one. In Australia, the highlight is Q2 consumer prices and RBA minutes but internationally, there’s a big moment for currency traders on Wednesday night with the Bank of England MPC vote. Here’s Westpac’s excellent diary of all the events and data for the week ahead.
4. The Battler has turned ugly. Morgan Stanley says the Aussie dollar is one of the “least attractive” assets in global markets. Here’s where it sits on their latest 1yr forecast of Stuff To Invest In:
That means the Aussie dollar loses out to other assets in the global competition for capital and a lower Aussie dollar in the months ahead is almost a dead cert.
5. Australia is winning the world again. Our cricketers smashed England by 405 runs at Lord’s to take the Ashes series to 1-1. Lleyton Hewitt took our Davis Cup team into the semi-finals and Jason Day is leading the British Open heading into tomorrow’s final round. All is right again with the world. ([email protected] cricket.)
6. But the big winner is Aussie surfer Mick Fanning, who punched a great white shark during the final of the J-Bay Open in South Africa. Was it caught on film? Oh yes:
Fanning wasn’t even trying to be a hero when he faced the media, saying he’d be “happy to not ever compete again”. “I just saw fin, I didn’t see the teeth,” he said. “I was waiting for the teeth to come at me as I was swimming… I started just swimming and swimming. I was screaming.”
7. How to turn $8000 into $1.2 million a year? Become a hacker. Even the beginners make around $100K a month, information security expert Ziv Mador told us, before showing us the disturbingly simple way anyone can target and extort cash from internet users.
8. Or you could do what these legitimately successful people do and start your day with all these good breakfasts they start with their day with.
9. Uber may have a big problem in its home town of San Francisco. One driver, Barbara Ann Berwick, just won a federal class-action claim against Uber saying she should be considered an employee, not a contract worker. Uber is appealing, calling for the class action part of the suit dropped. Probably because this is the potential nightmare scenario it faces if it has to reclassify 45,000 drivers as “employees”.
10. Speaking of startups, if you’re starting one, there’s a few things you really need to get your head around before pitching VCs for cash. And they’re pretty much all in these 11 books, so book a cruise, pack them and it could be the best couple of grand you’ll ever spend.
BONUS ITEM: One more time. Here’s all the footage and rescue of Mick Fanning fighting a great white shark:
Have a great day.
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