Good morning! Here’s what you need to know in markets on Tuesday.
A €5 billion ($5.33 billion) rescue plan for Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena hangs by a thread after Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s heavy defeat at a weekend referendum tipped the country into political turmoil. The bank, saddled with bad loans, needs to raise the money by the end of the month to avoid being wound down, but Italy now faces early elections after Renzi said he would quit to take responsibility for the defeat of his constitutional referendum.
The City of London will not get any special treatment in the upcoming Brexit negotiations, senior members of Theresa May’s Cabinet have told a group of high-profile banking and insurance chiefs. The Daily Telegraph understands that Chancellor Philip Hammond and David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, told a group of City leaders that, despite accounting for 11.8% of GDP, financial and professional services is only one industry and cannot be seen to be treated differently.
Britain has suffered its “first lost decade since the 1860s” when “Karl Marx was scribbling in the British Library,” according to the governor of the UK’s central bank. The Financial Times reports that Mark Carney said it is understandable that the public is complaining about low wages, insecure employment, stateless corporations, and striking inequalities in his first economic speech since shortly after the EU referendum.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a new intraday high on Monday. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to the highest level since last July, extending its rally after OPEC agreed to limit production last week.
Asian stock markets are rising too. Japan’s Nikkei closed up 0.57%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 0.79% at the time of writing (6.20 a.m. GMT/1.20 a.m. ET), but China’s Shanghai Composite is down 0.01%.
Growth in British retail sales slowed in November after a bumper October as shoppers waited for big discounts around “Black Friday” at the end of the month, industry figures showed on Tuesday. Reuters reports that the British Retail Consortium said total spending rose by a year-on-year rate of 1.3%, slower than October’s 2.4% although a little stronger than the average for 2016.
A top US investment bank resigned as a key adviser to Mike Ashley’s Sports Direct because of concerns that the retail company had manipulated its share price, according to claims made in a high court document. The Guardian reports that Bank of America Merrill Lynch had concerns about Sports Direct’s corporate governance and the “propriety” of share transactions in 2012 around its employee bonus scheme, according to allegations in legal filings by Jeff Blue, previously one of Ashley’s key allies.
President-elect Donald Trump could be either the best or the worst thing to happen to the global economy in 2017 and 2018, and no one is really sure which way things will swing, according to research from Oxford Economics. The research house’s annual Global Risk Survey examined what investors see as being both the biggest risks to the world economy over the next 12 months and the biggest potential upsides.
European GDP numbers are coming. Third quarter growth figures are due at 10.00 a.m. GMT (5.00 a.m. ET). Economists are forecasting annual growth of 1.3% and quarterly growth of 0.3%, both of which would represent no change on second quarter growth.
Unions are close to agreeing a deal with Tata Steel which would keep the Port Talbot works open along with other UK plants, BBC Wales understands. Talks were held between the company and unions last week, where it is thought the issues of pensions, production and jobs were discussed.
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