10 Reasons I Am Delusional, Not The Market

Maybe I am delusional and the Market is Sane.

1. I am trying to start a business that has to date made no money but has tremendous potential. At the same time I am trading for a living. I am delusional, perhaps. But at the same time I have desperately tried to get a small business loan. To no avail. PNC won’t lend me, JPM won’t lend me, and BAC won’t lend me anything. Even if I post collateral. So who is delusional if the banks are still not lending to small business, the lifeblood of employment. But I am delusional

2. I am delusional because of the stress I am under when I look at my monthly grocery bill. A quart of milk costs nearly $4; it cost $2.40 2 years ago. My kids consume a quart of milk a day. That’s $120 a month. That’s just for milk. But I am delusional, because inflation is only a problem in third world countries. KR and SVU have no problem raising prices, just pass it on. Forget Wall Street, Main Street has lost touch with the rest of us. But I am delusional.

3. My heating bills overwhelm me this winter. PSE&G you make me cry. I become delusional when I pay the bills. It makes me feel like going out and spending money at my local restaurant, maybe even take the whole family out. The proprietor can regale us as to how his business is dying. But I am delusional because sky rocketing oil prices are good for the economy.

4. The Verizon I phone is not selling that well. It was hyped for the past year. We were told it would allow APPL to dominate the PDA space. We were told it would crush AT&T. But it hasn’t. How much of this hype is premium built into the price of apple. When will we hear from Steve Jobs? Not hearing from him has made me delusional.

5. The promise of democracy in the Middle East has made me delusional. I am so thrilled that Mubarak cronies in the army are monitoring the Suez canal, that not even rumour of Iranian warships heading toward a neighbour of Israel can shake the markets conviction. Peace is the word. It feels like the delusional high of the ’60s.

6. I am delusional from my yoga classes. I see everyone wearing LULU lemon. Buy LULU it can’t go down. Who care that it is trading at 44x this fiscal years estimates.

7. The drop in CSCO made me delusional. For a moment I thought that while there was one reasonably expected upgrade in corporate infrastructure that was to be expected, I did not believe that this was only specific to CSCO, as every other tech stock rallies. Clearly nobody believes companies have learned valuable lessons about extending there upgrade cycles. Everyone must be getting ready to buy new equipment.

8. The banks have made me delusional. I have begun to believe they can do no wrong. GS and MS just keep going up. Who care that Bernie says there is no way they didn’t know what he was doing. I guess all those millions of trades they did with him, and all the compliance and operations people that processed them, never realised that some of them may have been fictitious. Bernie please keep your mouth shut lest our delusional market believe someone other than you might be culpable for the crime of the century.

9. My children’s private school tuition’s are killing me. I am delusional because I somehow believe that they will have greater opportunity than I had. What about solving social security.

10.  And the number one reason I am delusional is because I began to build a short book again today.

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