The often volatile and increasingly controversial Australian labour force survey for January will be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) at 11.30am AEDT.
Here’s the state of play.
- In December employment fell by 966, beating forecasts for a decline of 10,000.
- Full time employment jumped by 17,559, completely offsetting a 18,524 decline in part time employment.
- Male employment increased by 6,213 over the month, mitigating a 7,178 decrease in female employment.
- Over the year employment increased by 301,341, equating to an annual increase of 2.6%.
- Despite the decline in employment, a 0.2% drop in labour market participation to 65.1% left the unemployment rate at 5.76%, the lowest level seen since October 2013.
- In numeric terms, the number of unemployed workers fell by 10,947 to 727,484, the lowest level since May 2014.
- According to a survey of 25 economists polled by Bloomberg, employment is tipped to increase by 13,000 in January. Fitting with the notoriously volatile nature of the release, forecasts range from a decline of 30,000 to an increase of 40,000.
- Unemployment is tipped to remain steady at 5.8%.
- The ABS has also acknowledged that in the January survey the outgoing rotation group had a relatively low employment to population ratio, warning that “if the new incoming rotation group has an employment-to-population ratio that is more similar to the average, or is relatively higher than the average, there is likely to be some degree of contribution to employment growth from this rotation group change”.
- This factor, pointing to the increased likelihood for strong employment growth in January, could see market expectations sit significantly higher than their economic peers.
The ABS will release the report at 11.30am AEDT.
Business Insider will have full coverage as soon as the data drops.