Having rattled financial markets over the past few months, China’s economy will be back in focus today with the release of Q3 GDP along with industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed asset investment figures for September.
Here’s the state of play.
- In the June quarter, China’s economy grew by 1.7%, leaving the annual rate of growth at 7.0%. It was unchanged from the rate reported in Q1, and beat forecasts for a decline to 6.9%.
- Over the past year China tertiary sector, the largest in terms of economic output, recorded the fastest pace of economic growth at 8.4%. Secondary industry grew by 6.1% while primary industry expanded by just 3.5%.
- Reflective of the enormous surge in China’s stock market seen in the first half of 2015, the finance sector recorded the fastest pace of annual growth at 17.4%. The largest individual sector – industry – recorded growth of just 6.0%.
- For the September quarter, economic growth is expected to slow to 6.8% from a year earlier. From a survey of 50 economists conducted by Thomson Reuters, forecasts range from 6.4% to 7.2%.
- If derived, it will mark the slowest annual expansion recorded since the March quarter 2009 – the height of the financial crisis.
- The release has a curious knack of coming in around market expectations. The past four GDP figures have either been in line with forecasts or exceeded them by 0.1%.
- Alongside the GDP release, industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed asset investment figures will also be released.
- In annual terms, industrial production is expected to grow by 6.0%, down from 6.1% in August, while retail sales are tipped to remain steady at 10.8%. Urban fixed asset investment is forecast to grow 10.8%, below the 10.9% level seen previously.
All four data releases are scheduled for 1pm AEDT, although given previous experience, the GDP figure may well be leaked prior to the specified time. Regardless, Business Insider will have full coverage as soon as the data drops.