Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a brief guide to what traders are talking about on Monday morning:
Good Morning! US Futures are climbing 30bp early, with SPY trying to recover from its first 3 day losing streak since January 8. It’s very quiet out there tho, with Europe and London closed for Easter Monday. China and Japan were open for business, and Nikkei outperformed, climbing 70bp, on reports of a potential stimulus package from Abe this week. The yen’s seventh straight session of losses (longest losing streak since July 2014) pushed exporters higher. China lost 70bp as property stocks continued to retreat, and India was hit for 1.3% as Banks and Pharma were hit. Turnover throughout Asia was low with Hong Kong, Kiwis and Aussie closed.
10yr JGBs initially dipped to -10bp on indications next year’s tax hike will be delayed, but ended up closing slightly higher on the day. Treasury Trading is very quiet, with desks in Asia and Europe sparse, but the US 10YY remains just above 1.9% as all eyes are on Yellen’s speech tomorrow and Payroll data Friday. The DXY continues to rally against Asian Currencies and Euros — helping drive Gold to 1month lows ahead of the Fed’s “preferred gauge of inflation” at 8:30 today. Several metals are outperforming the stronger greenback with Aluminium climbing to Highest in Six Months in China as industrial profits rose at their fastest pace since 2014.
At 8:30 today, we get a big data dump with Advance Goods Trade Balance; PCE; Personal Income and Spending. 10am brings Pending Home Sales for February, while Dallas Fed Manf. Activity hits at 10:30. At 1pm, the US Treasury is auctioning off $26B in 2Y notes. Very quiet in Washington, with the Senate and House not in session, and the White House hosting the annual Easter egg roll. At 9:30, the Supreme Court issues orders; possible list of new cases — all that’s really going on…